I reckon is hardly used at all where I live. I associate it with the southern U.S. It's more similar to
I guess than to
I think.
The usage of
I think and
I guess can be quite different.
You use
I think to express an opinion. It may have a forward-looking, positive feel.
I think high fructose corn syrup is responsible for obesity in children.
I think we should collect signatures so we can get this law repealed.
I think you'll do very well on your exam.
(I would not use
I guess (
I reckon) in any of the statements above.)
____________
You use
I guess to give your estimate of a situation. It
can express powerlessness to do anything about the situation as well --
or at least the idea of resignation to the situation. It's
somewhat more backward-looking.
I guess I've lost the lottery again. I don't have any of those numbers. (sigh)
I guess you'll have to start over, now that you've ruined that batch.
I guess I must have got the wrong number because the call's not going through.
(I would not very likely use
I think in any of the statements above -- certainly not with the first of the three, although possibly for the third.)
____________
There is some overlap, however.
CJ