The length of time that has been available for intelligent life to develop elsewhere is the same as the length of time that has been available on Earth.
To assess the probability of its existence elsewhere, therefore, we must first be able to answer the question: has intelligent life developed rapidly, on Earth? Or has it been a long and difficult process, with many hiccups?
If the former, there's much less chance of finding intelligent life elsewhere. We are ahead of the pack.
If the latter, there's much more chance – unless we assume that it must by its nature be a long and difficult process.
But we won't know either way till we have more data...i.e. till we've found other life forms!
MrP