Hi, Insider.
Glad to see you don't give up.
"So I am to understand from your messaging with GG that the answer is not 1 to 2?"
I didn't say that.
"To think logicly, there is always only two options for passengers: either the old lady's sit or their own sit."
No, if their own seat is occupied, they take a random vacant seat.
"As far as their ticket shows their exact place i dont think number of sits in the bus plays a role in the chances of early siters or the last siter."
Oh, it does. The more seats, the more chances for the last passenger to sit on his seat. Consider two passengers and two seats. The answer is 1/2. And if there are three seats? The answer changes to 1-1/3 = 2/3. Try to understand that.
"Accordingly the last place is either the last person's or the mad lady's, there is no other option. So why 1 out of 2 is not right?"
Well, for the same reason that you don't meet a dinosaur in 50% of times visit a bakery ;) And you're not right about the last place. Anybody can accidently take it. For example, the mad lady took the second passenger's seat. The second passenger, having found his place occupied, took the last passenger's seat.