This is getting more and more confusing to me. If you don't mind, let's drop the adjective unpredictable. I believe it doesn't affect your choice of verb.
For some reason, the words there and this affect the tense. There paired with was is OK but This sounds better with is. Imagine looking at a picture of an accident. Of the two words, I would choose to use 'this' and because I'm looking at it, I would use the present tense though clearly the accident occured before that: This is an accident.
I can't imagine when I'd say "This was an accident". This and was just don't go well with each other.
I'm starting to understand why you prefer the past tense over the present. Could you shed some light on This vs There?