CJ:
1. He was crazy to climb up into that tree. He [might / *may] have fallen and broken his neck!
This is what I say if I know he did not fall. If I already know he did not fall, the acquisition of that knowledge must have happened in the past.
JTT: I have to ask for the reasons you exclude 'may' in sentence 1. Tendencies to choose one form over another are not very good proof that a form is past or present tense. When one encounters such contradictions, it might be wise to consider that there are other reasons, possibly semantic/pragmatic differences.
Also, note that purported past tense 'might' just can't do it without 'have + PP', ie.
1a. *He was crazy to climb up into that tree. He might fall and break his neck! *
Why is this, when you state that it's a past tense?
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CJ:
2. "He may have fallen and broken his neck"
can only be used to mean something entirely different. In the following, no such acquisition of knowledge took place before the utterance of these sentences. It's pure speculation in the present.
He's all bandaged up and wearing a neck brace. He [may / might] have fallen and broken his neck.
JTT: "in the present", Jim? What is "in the present" and why is it "in the present"? Isn't sentence 1 also "in the present".
CJ:
This is evidence for my point that the "past forms" of the modals can be 'borrowed' into the present point of view, but the "present forms" of the modals cannot be 'borrowed' into the past point of view.
JTT: That seems illogical on its face. I think you're going to have to revise your point rather drastically, Jim. How about the following?
a. You will have already read this.
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b.
[link]
Chapter 1.04 GENERAL PROVISIONS
Section 1.04.210 Shall have been, defined.
The words "shall have been" include past and future cases.
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Or this from Abraham Lincoln;
c. The Emancipation Proclamation
The persons excepted from the benefits of the foregoing provisions are all who are, or shall have been, civil or diplomatic officers or agents of the so-called Confederate government;
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d. as you call any story that is invented; for whatever I shall tell you I shall have seen with my own eyes or heard with my own ears ...
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e. You will have heard that the grand old man of football Brian ...
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f. [stick in any past will/shall structure you choose and Google will give you hundreds of examples of 'will' and 'shall' operating in the past.