Goldmund wrote:

We are not able to assess the full consequences of the Lisbon earthquake. Therefore we may not say if it is an «evil». Perhaps you will permit me to say further. There is no event of which we may assess the full consequences. Therefore there is no event of which we may say «it is evil».

Am I to assume from this that you do not consider anyone should be held liable for their actions?

Forbes wrote:

What long term good came out of the Lisbon earthquake?

Today I walked to a local supermarket. I bought some beans. They were organic green beans from Kenya.

Let's say I want to assess the consequences of my action, and so to decide whether it's a long-term "good" or "evil".

There are several factors to take into account:

1. What will happen to the money I spent? What will it finance?

2. What are the effects of buying beans at that supermarket, and not another?

3. What are the effects of buying Kenyan beans instead of, say, local British beans?

4. I stopped en route to chat with an elderly neighbour. If I had not decided to buy some beans, I would not have chatted with the neighbour. What then are the consequences of stopping for five minutes? What would have happened if I hadn't stopped – to me or to the neighbour?

5. I held up the traffic at the pedestrian crossing for a minute or two. What are the consequences? If a particular driver hadn't stopped, how would his journey have changed?

6. Because I was in town, I went into a bookshop and bought the last copy of a particular book. How will that decision affect the person who later enters the shop to buy the same book, and finds it isn't there? Will he make a special trip to another town? What will that lead to?

7. What are the health benefits of my organic beans? Let's say they contribute to a longer life. What are the consequences of that longer life for other people? The beneficiaries of my will, for instance?

8. What are the effects of that purchase on other non-human organisms? Those that my longer or shorter life may affect? The species that are displaced by Kenyan farms?

etc etc.

Now it's possible that every consequence of my bean-buying excursion could be analysed in terms of "immediate benefit to this party, immediate harm to that party". It would take a long time; but it could be done.

But could we successfully analyse the consequences of the consequences? I doubt it. And even then, we wouldn't have sufficient data to assess whether the simple act of buying Kenyan beans was a long-term "good" or "evil".

And if we can't evaluate the consequences of buying a packet of green beans, today, in a thoroughly documented English town, how can we hope to evaluate the long-term consequences of a 250-year-old earthquake?

MrP