re: Brexit page 4

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CalifJimHave the Brits driven themselves over the cliff yet?

Parliament is undecided. They have voted seven or eight times NO. They don't seem to know what they want. The opposition wants Prime Minister May to step down, but that won't solve the problem, of course. Britain is divided as to what it should do. Worse problems lie ahead: Scotland and Northern Ireland may want to leave the United Kingdom after Britain has left the EU.


Cool BreezeThe opposition wants Prime Minister May to step down, but that won't solve the problem, of course.

Yes. That "solution" looks like a non-starter.

Cool BreezeScotland and Northern Ireland may want to leave the United Kingdom after Britain has left the EU.

I can't say I'd blame them if they did. But are they any more likely to succeed (in the long run) if they do that?


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CalifJimBut are they any more likely to succeed (in the long run) if they do that?

It depends on what you consider "success". The majority of the people in both Scotland and Northern Ireland were against leaving the EU in the referendum in 2016. I suppose if they ever leave the UK, they'll succeed or fail like any other EU country.

Scotland may want to become independent and NI may want to become a part of Ireland. Britain will of course oppose that. The future looks very uncertain to me.


Any changes of opinion (either pro or con) since Boris Johnson has stepped in and started stirring the pot?

Is it going to be "exit without a deal"? Does that make any difference to the "leavers"?

I saw a chart of statistics somewhere that those parts of the country which voted to leave were exporting more by far to the rest of the EU than those parts of the country which voted to stay. Therefore, they had more to lose by leaving than the others, who voted to stay. I'm left scratching my head why that makes sense. Let me know if you have the words that explain this apparent anomaly.


In my opinion Boris Johnson is only interested in the future and success of himself and his party, not the welfare of his country. He has miscalculated, though. About a week before he became the leader of his party, Helsingin Sanomat, the leading Finnish daily, entitled one of its leading articles "The next loser to be elected".

As there have been traditionally only two major parties in Britain, the country is not used to seeking consensus. Britain is woefully divided with regard to Brexit, and whatever happens, there will be a very large unhappy minority. The likelihood of a no-deal Brexit increases day by day. If that happens, Britain will be in turmoil for a while.

A no-deal Brexit would be costly for the EU as well, not just Britain. However, the EU politicians and countries are getting fed up with seemingly endless discussions about Brexit. There are other things that demand their attention. Boris Johnson is definitely wrong if he thinks he can force the EU to dance according to his wishes and grant Britain some priviledges. That won't happen.

I don't know how much exports and imports affected the voters' decisions three years ago. I assume people in Scotland and Wales just think, or know, that they benefit from their EU membership. Also, there are probably not as many immigrants in Scotland and Wales as there are in England and that may have been a factor, too.

Britain won't be doomed without the EU. Norway and Switzerland are not members and they are doing fine. Of course many companies and organizations that do a lot of business with the EU will relocate their headquarters from Britain, and that will have an adverse effect on the British economy, but things may improve in the long haul.

Whether a country is a member of the EU may not matter that much in about 100 years as mankind is committing suicide anyway.


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The Conservatives now have enough MPs to guarantee Brexit. This Tory majority is the result of a strange voting system. There are 650 constituencies, and from each of them only the candidate that gets the most votes is elected. Thus, if there were only two parties taking part in a general election, and party A got 49 percent of the votes while party B got 51 percent in all of the 650 constituencies, party A wouldn't get a single MP.

In this last election, according to the BBC the Conservatives got 43.6 percent of the votes, but 56 percent of the seats in Parliament. The parties in favour of Brexit got 46.4 percent of the votes—clearly less than half.

About 52 percent of the voters voted for parties that would like Britain to remain in the EU or would like a new referendum about Brexit. These parties are the Labour Party, the Scottish National Party, the Liberal Democrats, the Green Party of England and Wales and at least three smaller parties.

So we can safely infer that the majority of the British people wanted Britain to remain in the EU or a new referendum. Personally, I have nothing against Brexit, and as it is obviously going to happen, I hope it will happen as soon as possible.

It certainly wasn't what the people wanted, though.