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I have been playing a lot today.

I have played a lot today.

Can either be used if the day isn't over and I might continue playing? Or does the present perfect mean I have stopped playing for the day?

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'have been playing' sounds more like you are still playing and may continue to play.

'have played' sounds more like you are no longer playing.

However, there is no strict rule that governs these things.

CJ