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(1) as often as not

(2) as often than not

I have one textbook claiming that the possibility is "5 out of 10" in (1), and "more than 5 out of 10" in (2). Is tha really true? In other words the author (not a native speaker of English) is claiming that (2) refers to a larger possibility than (1) does.
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Hi,

(1) as often as not This is a standard phrase.

(2) as often than not This phrase is incorrect, 'than' does not work here.

Best wishes, Clive
Comments  
Dear Clive,

Thank you very much for helping me with so many questions of mine (four questions!)

Thanks to you my struggle with lerning English is becoming more amusing.

Nothing is better for sailors to have Posseidon protect you in their journey,

Nothing is better for lerners to have a person like you near us,

I'm going to cherish your being near us, every day,