# Predict?

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His prediction that the president (    ) change the policy is unlikely to come true.
(1) will
(2) should
Which is the correct one? Or are they both correct?
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Only "will" is correct. "Should" does not predict a future event. You may express an opinion that he's obligated to change the policy, but that would not be a prediction.

You may also say, "I think it should happen," but I believe this is an expression of probability, which is not the same as an opinion that it will happen.

Edit. It's also possible to make a prediction which you believe will not "come true."
AvangiYou may also say, "I think it should happen," but I believe this is an expression of probability, which is not the same as an opinion that it will happen.
Isn't prediction something about probability?
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Many published books seem to show that 'prediction+should' might be acceptable:
Anybody else?
I originally saw this post as a question related to reported speech:

His prediction that the president will change the policy is unlikely to come true.
vs.
His prediction that the presdident would change the policy was unlikely to come true.

Should has nothing to do with prediction, but rather with obligation; it has not place in this sentence.
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Taka Isn't prediction something about probability?
Absolutely true! A prediction may be based on probability, but they're not synonymous. (It also may be based on astrology, or a flip of the coin.)

The second "should" use in my first reply was something like,

"Since their best player is injured, I think we should win tonight."

I believe there's a difference between estimating a probability and making a prediction based on that probability.

"We have a good chance of winning," vs. "I think/predict we will win, because of X, Y, and Z."

Edit. "Absolutely" is a bad choice of words.
Let me make it clear that my first choice is also 'will'. I'm just wondering why we cannot use 'should' here when we have this definition of The American Heritage:
2. Used to express probability or expectation: They should arrive at noon.
http://www.bartleby.com/61/83/S0368300.html
I don't believe anyone has said we can't. But your example was of the "fill in the blank" type.

"I predict that they should arrive at noon" is illogical. It must be, "I predict that they will arrive at noon."